Will the World Really Be Meatless by 2050?

Will we really be meatless by 2050? Sounds like vegetarian utopia. But, will it be reality? Although this would be ideal for vegetarians and vegans alike, it’s hard to make the claim that the world will be “meatless” by 2050. However, it is unavoidable that the world will have to accommodate with “less meat.”

Right now, though, that is not quite the picture. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, meat consumption worldwide has doubled in the last 20 years and is expected to double again by 2050. “Expected” is the key word for 2050.

Michael Pollan, author of “The Ominvore’s Dilemma” and “In Defense of Food,” states, “There will be a lot of pressure and education to show that a heavy meat diet is a big contributor to Climate change, and that there are many good reasons to eat less meat.”  

The reason why meat consumption has doubled in the last 20 years is because economies are growing and more people can afford meat. This is good news for the economy but not necessarily good for many other sectors of life.

Basic numbers of 2050

• World population is expected to be 9.1 billion people (34 percent higher than what it is today)
• 70 percent of the world’s population will be urban (compared to 49 percent urban today)
• Food production must increase by 70 percent
  • annual cereal production will need to rise by about 3 billion tonnes (2.1 billion tonnes today)
  • annual meat production will need to rise by over 200 million tonnes to reach 470 million tonnes
  • 1 tonne = 1000 kilograms = 2204.6 pounds

Of this 9.1 billion people, there will be a greater proportion of older people. This is worthwhile to mention because age groups differ in dietary and consumption patterns; adults typically consume larger amounts of animal protein than children. It is also important to note the significance of continued urbanization. Urbanization promotes changes in lifestyle, specifically concerning consumption patterns and diversification of diets. This is especially true in urbanization of developing countries.

In accordance with a fast-paced lifestyle often found in cities, diet usually follows suit– there is often reliance on semi-processed and fast food which then leads to health implications.  Furthermore, although urbanization will undergo acceleration, rural areas will still be around and these areas will still be home to the majority of the poor and hungry. For instance, certain rural areas are deemed “hunger hot spots,” ecologically fragile areas having to cope with conditions of high population pressure and deteriorating ecosystems. Thus, even if food production is able to increase by 70 percent, that does not promise food security in all areas. In fact, much of the increased number of grains for 2050 will be needed just to Support the demand of animals, let alone people. Pollan describes meat as an inefficient way of feeding ourselves and states that it takes ten pounds of grain to get one pound of beef, seven pounds to grain to get one pound of pork, and two pounds of grain to get one pound of chicken. 

Risks inhibiting food security

Many counties will have to continue depending on international trade to ensure food security; perhaps even an increased number of nations dependent on a global trading system will emerge. One reason for this is climate change by 2050. It is predicted that countries in the Southern hemisphere will suffer the greatest share of damage in the form of declining produce yields due to higher frequency of extreme weather events. Agriculture will have to adapt to this Climate change.

Another reason why there is worry over food security is increased biofuel production. Just from 2000 to 2008, biofuel production based on agricultural commodities increased more than threefold. This expanded use of food crops for biofuel production can have serious ramifications for food security. It is predicted that continued expansion of biofuels in 2050 would lead to the number of undernourished pre-school children in Africa and South Asia to 3 and 1.7 million more children, respectively, than would have been the case otherwise. There is a drastic need to reduce competition between food and fuel for scarce resources. 

Meat and resource availability or rather, scarcity

Let’s revisit the claim that there needs to be a 70 percent increase in global food production for 2050. A 70 percent increase is a lot. A lot. For that increase, there needs to be sufficient resources. However, these sufficient resources are to be determined. Livestock activities have a HUGE impact on virtually all aspects of the environment aka these precious resources.

• The livestock sector occupies around 30 percent of the planet’s ice-free terrestrial surface and contributes to:
  
  • Pollution: nutrients, organic matter, pathogens, and drug residues easily contaminate water sources
  • Climate change: The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates that livestock production is responsible for 14.5 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, while other organizations like the Worldwatch Institute have estimated it could be as much as 51 percent.
  • Landscape alteration: grazing/pasture land as well as feedcrop production which modify and reduce natural habitats
• Agriculture also accounts for 70 percent of total freshwater use
  • Direct effect of livestock: need for water for drinking and servicing
  • Indirect effect of livestock: need for water to produce feedgrain

Thus, livestock production should be carefully managed given the greater demand of scare resources. One of the biggest resource at stake is water. In order to satisfy production growth, availability of fresh water reserves is required. Unfortunately, the current number of countries reaching alarming levels of water scarcity is growing.

Let’s examine Botswana as an example. Botswana is a predominantly dry country experiencing water stress. Of their already limited water resources, 23 percent is used by livestock accounts which is the second principal use of their total water. If the livestock sector were to increase along with demands for water from other sectors, water scarcity will become even more dramatic.

Unfortunately, policy makers see water requirements for livestock  to be around only 0.6 percent on a global scale. However, this is a gross underestimate. This number only represents the water that animals actually drink (direct effect). Rather, what needs taken into account is the long chain of water use throughout the whole livestock production process and resulting commodities. Water will become a serious constraint on the expansion of agriculture to meet other growing human needs let alone to meet the requirements of the livestock production line. Producing livestock, continued in the way it is now, is completely unsustainable.

Veggie future?

Bill Gates notes that, “with billions of people adding more animal proteins to their diets– meat consumption is expected to double by 2050– it seems clear that arable land and freshwater for raising livestock won’t be able to keep up.” Gates advocates a switch to a plant-based diet to solve this problem. Yet, he sees the absurdity of asking 9 billion people to become full out vegetarians overnight. Thus, Gates is endorsing plant-based alternatives to meat and eggs to combat the need for livestock production. Perhaps not all vegans and vegetarians will latch on to these products but the goal is to offer a legitimate protein option for the conscious carnivore, noted by Michael Pollan.

In a discussion with Gates, Pollan explains the limited success of plant-based meat substitutes in the past: quality, price, and a small audience. Gates is enthused to promote companies like Beyond Meat and Hamptom Creek Foods which are promising higher quality and more affordable products using new techniques involving heat and pressure.

Nevertheless, Pollan drives home an important point that if all these products are soy-based, landscape won’t find relief — he warns, “Soy won’t help us diversify our farms.” Still, Pollan declares that there is great potential for meat alternatives to help sustain the future and that this area of food industry and research deserves a lot more investment. That investment is exactly Gates’ plan.

Ultimately, water and land resources may decide our fate in 2050 but for now you can take matters into your own hand and help the environment by enjoying a wonderfully diverse plant-based diet!

Sources: The Gates Notes, How to Feed the World in 2050/FAO, Livestock’s Long Shadow/FAO

Image Source: Quinoa and White Bean Burger