Russia’s Climate Commitments: War Efforts and Western Tensions Redefine Agenda

In a surprising turn of events, Russia’s stance on climate change has undergone significant changes amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions. As the world gears up for the COP28 climate summit in Dubai, Russia has voiced opposition to the phasing out of fossil fuels, a stance at odds with global climate action norms. This development comes as Russia marginally increases its oil and coal production in 2022, showing a clear deviation from global efforts to reduce fossil fuel dependence.

Source: Bloomberg Television/YouTube

In an apparent move to counter Western influence, Russia is even blocking European Union countries from hosting the upcoming COP29 summit in 2024. Despite Moscow’s commitment to becoming carbon neutral by 2060 and limiting greenhouse gas emissions to 70% of 1990 levels by 2030, experts deem these targets modest. With Russia’s emissions already about 30% below 1990 levels (excluding forest sinks), the Climate Action Tracker labels Russia’s climate goals as “highly insufficient.”

The war effort against Ukraine and the need to replace Western goods in the domestic market have led to a rollback in environmental initiatives. Notably, Russia has relaxed its vehicle emission standards, allowing domestic car makers to produce cars with Euro 2 standard engines, a significant step back from the Euro 5 standard.

The reliance on imported technology for reducing carbon emissions stands at 55% in the oil sector, 45% in the coal sector, and 31% in the power sector. This dependence casts doubt on the future of Russian projects that relied on Western cooperation, such as wind farm developments impacted by Finnish company Fortum’s withdrawal from the Russian market.

Despite these setbacks, there are glimpses of progress. Russia has made efforts to establish platforms for carbon footprint reduction, similar to those in Western countries. Notable initiatives include VEB.RF’s development of criteria for environmentally friendly products and firms, and attempts to create a carbon trading market. The Sakhalin pilot project, aimed at achieving carbon neutrality on the island by 2025, is a testament to these efforts, though it faces challenges due to oil and gas industry lobbying and a lack of funding.

The decline in Russia’s export value to the EU by 81% between February 2022 and September 2023 has shifted its focus towards Asian markets, affecting its climate commitments. However, despite reduced ambitions, Russia’s climate agenda maintains a degree of positive inertia. The government insists on staying within the Paris Agreement, and many private firms are independently working on decarbonization. Additionally, an unintended consequence of economic slowdown could also contribute to reducing carbon emissions, offering a glimmer of hope in an otherwise challenging climate landscape for Russia.

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