New National Climate Service Aims to Improve Forecasts Amid Rising Climate Threats

As Florida grapples with a second major hurricane, federal authorities have announced a plan to launch a national climate service. This new service will provide timely and localized forecasts for climate-related disasters, including hurricanes, floods, heat waves, and wildfires, which are intensifying due to global warming.

Similar to the National Weather Service, this new climate service aims to offer more specific projections to help local governments, emergency planners, and communities better prepare for extreme weather events. By providing these detailed forecasts, officials hope to prevent or reduce the severity of disasters like the flooding caused by Hurricane Helene.

“You need to think about weather and climate across time scales as being a seamless problem,” said Ben Kirtman, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Miami. Kirtman, a lead investigator on the project, emphasized that both short-term and long-term climate risks should be considered when planning for disasters.

NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) has allocated $15.3 million to this effort, using funds from the Inflation Reduction Act, which was designed to combat climate change by promoting clean energy. U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo said the initiative will allow communities to prepare more effectively for the increasing impacts of extreme weather. The funding will be used to enhance forecasting capabilities through existing resources.

Currently, local governments face challenges with climate predictions, which are often too broad or not aligned with their immediate needs. Kirtman highlighted that bridging the gap between short-term weather forecasting and long-term climate modeling is critical. “It’s bridging the time scale of what’s going to happen a month from now, two months from now, with what’s going to happen ten years from now,” he explained.

One key issue this new service seeks to resolve is the outdated reliance on past weather data for predictions. With rapidly changing climate conditions, historical trends are no longer reliable indicators of future events. “The past is not a good predictor anymore of what’s going to happen in the future,” Kirtman said, pointing to the need for forward-looking models that can adapt to evolving conditions.

The University of Miami will receive up to $5.8 million to develop this forecasting system, with initial efforts including embedding climate experts in local National Weather Service offices across the country. This would allow meteorologists and emergency managers to work closely together, providing real-time forecasts tailored to specific communities. Other universities and research institutions are also contributing to the project. Florida International University will receive $400,000, while James Hurrell, a professor at Colorado State University, has been awarded $1.2 million. The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is also involved, receiving $1.4 million.

NOAA has made previous attempts to improve climate forecasting, but earlier efforts lacked the knowledge and resources available today. Kirtman said the situation has changed dramatically, with a greater understanding of the impacts of Climate change and the tools needed to address them. “I think all the agencies are OK, that’s NOAA’s wheelhouse,” he said, referring to the organization’s responsibility for making actionable climate predictions.

Kirtman hopes that, once developed, these new forecasts will become part of daily weather reports, providing the public with more accurate information to guide decisions about travel, home buying, and disaster preparedness. To achieve this, scientists are working on refining the large amounts of data collected on climate, making sure the forecasts are both reliable and detailed for local needs.

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