Could Climate Change be Linked to an Increase in Air Turbulence and Recent Tragic Events?

A tragic incident on a Singapore Airlines flight has sparked renewed concerns about the impact of Climate change on air travel turbulence. On May 21, 2024, a passenger died and 30 others were injured when Flight SQ321 from London to Singapore encountered severe turbulence over Myanmar. The 73-year-old passenger reportedly died from cardiac arrest, highlighting the potential dangers even on routine flights.

Source: WIRED/YouTube

Experts emphasize that fatalities due to turbulence are extremely rare. The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) reports no turbulence-related deaths on large commercial planes in the U.S. since 2009. Despite the rarity, turbulence remains a significant concern. Between 2009 and 2023, turbulence caused 185 serious injuries, according to the NTSB, with crew members being particularly affected.

Larry Cornman, a physicist specializing in atmospheric motions, explains that severe turbulence is often unpredictable, a case of “wrong place, wrong time.” Clear-air turbulence, the type suspected in the Singapore Airlines incident, is especially dangerous because it is invisible and difficult to detect with current technology.

Climate change is a growing factor in these unpredictable events. A study published in Geophysical Research Letters in 2023 indicates a 50% increase in severe clear-air turbulence over the North Atlantic from 1979 to 2020. Researchers link this rise to Climate change-induced instability in the jet stream, a fast-moving air current influenced by temperature differences.

Mark Prosser, a doctoral researcher at the University of Reading, notes that the jet stream’s increased instability due to Global warming is likely contributing to more frequent turbulence. Climate models suggest that if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, clear-air turbulence could double or even triple by 2080 compared to preindustrial times.

The Singapore Airlines incident, which led to an emergency landing in Bangkok, underscores the urgent need for advancements in turbulence detection and forecasting. Sara Nelson, president of the Association of Flight Attendants-CWA, stresses the unpredictability of clear-air turbulence, noting that it can strike without warning, throwing passengers and crew around violently.

As climate change continues to affect atmospheric conditions, the aviation industry must adapt to ensure passenger safety. Enhanced turbulence detection technologies and improved forecasting models are essential steps in mitigating the risks associated with increasingly unstable air travel conditions.

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